Focus turns to Florida after Isaac leaves 2 dead in Haiti

Port-au-Prince, Haiti (CNN) -- After dumping intense rain and bringing strong winds to Haiti and Cuba on Saturday, Tropical Storm Isaac picked up steam -- and promised to pick up strength -- as it spun toward Florida.

The storm left at least two people dead in the impoverished Caribbean nation of Haiti, pounding camps where hundreds of thousands of people live in tents.

As the Haitian government and outside agencies continued to assess the damage, the focus surrounding Isaac increasingly turned toward Florida, much like the storm itself.

Isaac was roughly 65 miles northeast of Camaguey, Cuba, and 340 miles east-southeast of Key West by late Saturday, moving at about 17 mph, the National Hurricane Center said. The storm system is expected to gain strength and become a hurricane by early Monday as it moves past the Florida Keys and into the Gulf of Mexico.

After barreling north -- affecting Florida's western coast along the way -- the storm is expected to pack 100 mph sustained winds by the time it makes landfall sometime late Tuesday afternoon or early evening on the Florida Panhandle, likely near Panama City, according to forecasters.

PinPoint Weather Staff

Tropical Storm Isaac has winds of 65 mph winds and is moving WNW at 14 mph, as of the 4 a.m. NHC update. Isaac is 546 miles from New Orleans. A hurricane warning has been issued from Morgan City eastward to Destin, Fla. The warning includes metro New Orleans and the Lake Pontchartrain area.

The latest NHC track and cone shows that New Orleans and SE LA is INSIDE the cone and now the official track has the center moving towards New Orleans as the projected landfall now.  This can still shift west or east.  New European model doesn't come until 1 or 2am.

Intensity may be a 100 mph Cat 2 storm, although that is just an estimation. It could be stronger or weaker. As the storm pulls away from the Florida Keys, the track should tighten up and we'll have a more defined idea on the future of Isaac. However, Monday is the time to ready yourselves for possible hurricane conditions. Review your plans and be ready to take action if need be.
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Haiti Tropical Storm Isaac Situation Report

• Damage assessments are ongoing: six deaths, including that of an eight-year-old girl reported.
• Forty-one (41) temporary evacuation sites opened in affected departments, in particular in Ouest, Sudest, Grand Anse and Nord-est departments.
• Prepositioned food and water stocks are being distributed to people in temporary evacuation sites.
• The National System for Disaster Risk Reduction (SNGRD) reports that 14,375 people have been evacuated and 13,561 are in temporary evacuation sites.
• Monitoring for possible increase in cholera cases remains a priority.

Isaac storm video

Tropical storm Isaac has left at least four people dead after sweeping through Caribbean island country of Haiti.

Invest 94L Still Expected To Become Isaac Within The Next 24 To 36 Hours; Isaac To Be Expected To Impact The Leeward Islands On Wednesday & The Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico On Wednesday Night & Thursday

Invest 94L Located 1200 Miles East Of The Lesser Antilles:
 Invest 94L is gradually becoming better organized and is located right around 1200 miles or so to the east of the Lesser Antilles. I do think that we will see this system ramp up once it nears and crosses 50 West Longitude where there is warmer ocean waters and a moister atmosphere. This should happen tonight and I think we will see 94L become a depression and then a storm sometime between this evening and midday Tuesday.

As for the latest forecast guidance, they have backed way off on significant intensification from a couple of days ago and now show a weaker storm impacting the Leeward Islands on Wednesday. The NAM model forecasts Isaac to be to track right across Antigua midday on Wednesday with the GFS model forecasting this system to cross Guadeloupe late Wednesday morning. The European model also seems to suggest a track across Guadeloupe during Wednesday.

So, my thinking is for a track right across the island of Guadeloupe around midday Wednesday as perhaps a 45 to 55 mph tropical storm.

Beyond Wednesday, the latest guidance forecasts a track just south of Puerto Rico later Wednesday night, then to the south of Hispaniola during Thursday. The latest GFS model guidance forecasts that this system may impact Jamaica on Friday, the Cayman Islands during Saturday and potentially the entire west coast of Florida from Sunday to Wednesday of next week. The European model forecasts that 94L/Isaac will affect Jamaica and the Cayman Islands on Saturday, western Cuba next Monday and central and south Florida next Tuesday into next Wednesday.

So, here are my additional thoughts:
 I do think that Invest 94L will strengthen into Tropical Storm Isaac before it reaches the Leeward Islands. As I already mentioned, I think that this storm will track right over Guadeloupe as a 45 to 55 mph tropical storm around midday Wednesday with tropical storm conditions likely across much of the Leeward Islands during the day Wednesday.

Once Isaac to be is past the Leeward Islands, I think that it will track just south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday night and may bring tropical storm conditions to the southern half of Puerto Rico during Wednesday night. I do think that this system will come very close to and possibly go right over the island of Jamaica on Friday night as a moderately strong tropical storm and then affect the Cayman Islands with tropical storm conditions on Saturday.

Beyond the Cayman Islands, a track towards either the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula or the Bahamas seems possible as we head into early next week.

The main concern right now though is the Leeward Islands. Residents and vacationers in the Leeward Islands should be prepared for tropical storm conditions which are expected during the day Wednesday. Additionally, those of you in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands should also be prepared for tropical storm conditions, which are expected during Wednesday night.
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Invest 94 - About To Become Storm Isaac?

For the past several days a storm has been brewing in the east Atlantic. It appears it will become the next “iStorm”. That isn’t a new Apple product, but a term that is getting used due to the strength of recent storms that begin with “i”.


How powerful have “i” storms been? So powerful, that 7 of the past 11 storms that began with an i, now have their names retired. These include:
Irene, 2011
Igor, 2010
Ike, 2008
Ivan, 2004
Isabel, 2003
Isadore, 2002
Iris, 2001

Irene and Isabel are the ones we remember, with direct hits on Oriental. So, when late August comes along, we look east with some iconcern. We might just be inervous.

NOAA calls potential storms an “Invest”. Invest 94 is the one that is getting watched. This is likely to become Tropical Depression 9 or Tropical Storm Isaac in the next day
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Current Tropical Season Weather

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208170358
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2012, DB, O, 2012081700, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942012
AL, 94, 2012081606, , BEST, 0, 106N, 120W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2012081612, , BEST, 0, 107N, 136W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2012081618, , BEST, 0, 109N, 155W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2012081700, , BEST, 0, 110N, 172W, 20, 1010, DB, 34

Tropical Storm Isaac likely to form by Wednesday

There is an 80 percent chance Tropical Storm Isaac will have formed near the Lesser Antilles in the eastern Caribbean Sea by Wednesday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center.

 It's still too early to predict the storm's track, but weather-watching enthusiasts are discussing the possibility that it could make a turn toward the north and impact the East Coast.


 It's also possible it could move toward the Gulf of Mexico states or the Yucatan Peninsula, or that it could disintegrate thanks to dry air and high wind shear, of course.

 The hurricane center's forecast as of 2 p.m. says that while the storm has become better defined over the past few hours, it has "limited" shower and thunderstorm activity. Conditions are nevertheless conducive to a tropical depression forming over the next day or so, according to the forecast.

 AccuWeather blogger Eliot Abrams shared a map in a blog post this morning indicating a high possibility of the storm tracking up the East Coast, making landfall in North Carolina or somewhere north. But, he emphasized, the map is not to be considered a forecast, just a model.

 Weather Underground's Jeff Masters, meanwhile, guesses the most likely points of landfall on the Yucatan or Florida's Gulf coast. But there are factors that could pull it north, he said. Historically, storms in the same position as this one have a 10 percent chance of making landfall in North Carolina and a 20 percent chance of making landfall in Canada, according to this analysis of tropical cyclone track probabilities.

 Hurricane center forecasters are also tracking two other systems, one along Mexico's Gulf coast, the other off the west African coast. Both have 30 percent odds of becoming tropical storms within two days.
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Tropical Storm Isaac is set to be officially named in the near future.

Below are the projected paths from multiple computer models as reported by our favorite weather geek, Brad Panovich.

There is no reason to stress about your upcoming cruise being impacted by Tropical Storm Isaac due to all the unknowns. If you have a Caribbean or Bahamas cruise in the next week, Subscribe to CruiseSource for Tropical Storm Isaac updates.
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